Ditch Russia To Counter China
- Raman Gogia
- May 31, 2024
- 7 min read
Updated: May 31, 2024
India’s Foreign Policy Dilemma: Should It Ditch Russia for a Closer Alliance with the USA to Counter China?
Introduction
India's strategic autonomy and non-alignment have been the bedrock of its foreign policy for decades. However, the current global geopolitical landscape, marked by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the burgeoning China-Russia partnership, poses a significant dilemma for India. As tensions rise between major powers, India faces a critical decision: should it shift its foreign policy, distancing itself from Russia to align more closely with the United States to counter China? This article delves into the complexities of this decision, examining the strategic, economic, and geopolitical implications for India.
Historical Context: India’s Strategic Balancing Act
Since its independence, India has maintained a foreign policy of non-alignment, carefully balancing relationships with major global powers. During the Cold War, India forged a strong partnership with the erstwhile Soviet Union, which continued with Russia post-Cold War. This relationship was built on mutual interests, particularly in defense, energy and ideological alignments.
However, since the turn of the millennium, India has cultivated a growing partnership with the United States as well. This relationship has flourished, driven by shared democratic values and mutual concerns about China's rise, economic cooperation and growing people ties. This dual approach has allowed India to preserve its strategic autonomy while benefiting from diverse alliances.
All of this game of thrones-esque musical chairs has led to a need to strategize and realign India's priorities as we look at the next sections.
Listen Up Russia, We have a problem!
Even though India and Russia are such strong allies, there are obvious challenges hampering the relationship between the two even though both the countries hold on to each other. Amongst all the two most contentious issues are focused on:
The China-Russia Nexus Poses a Challenge to India
The deepening China-Russia nexus presents a formidable challenge to India, complicating its strategic landscape and foreign policy decisions. This partnership has flourished across military, economic, and political domains, creating a united front against Western influence and fostering a multipolar world order. For India, which shares a complex and often contentious relationship with China, this growing alliance is particularly concerning.
Militarily, China's assertive stance along the disputed border and its rapid modernization of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) are amplified by its close cooperation with Russia. Joint military exercises, technology transfers, and intelligence sharing between China and Russia could tilt the regional power balance, potentially compromising India's security.
Economically, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) spearheaded by China, with tacit Russian support, aims to extend Beijing's influence across Asia, directly challenging India's regional ambitions. This vast infrastructure and investment project encircles India, from the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to ports and logistics hubs in neighboring countries, constraining India's strategic space.
Politically, the united front of China and Russia in international forums like the United Nations further isolates India on key issues, diminishing its influence in global governance. As these two powers strengthen their alliance, India faces an increasingly complex and challenging geopolitical environment, necessitating a nuanced and adaptive foreign policy strategy.
Oh Russia - Why Why Why?
Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has strained its long-standing relationship with India, introducing significant complexities into their diplomatic and strategic partnership. Historically, India and Russia have enjoyed a robust bond, particularly in defense and energy sectors. However, the invasion posed a severe ethical and geopolitical challenge for India, which has always upheld principles of sovereignty and international law.
India's foreign policy, rooted in non-alignment and strategic autonomy, found itself at a crossroads. The global condemnation of Russia and the imposition of severe economic sanctions pressured India to reassess its stance. India's abstention from UN resolutions condemning Russia's actions underscored the diplomatic tightrope it walked, balancing its historical ties with Moscow against the principles it espouses on the global stage.
The conflict also threatened India's defense and energy supplies, predominantly sourced from Russia. The sanctions disrupted trade and created uncertainties around the maintenance and future procurement of military hardware. Moreover, India's deepening strategic partnership with the United States and its Indo-Pacific allies further complicated its position, as aligning too closely with Russia could undermine these critical relationships.
In essence, Russia's actions in Ukraine forced India to navigate a complex geopolitical landscape, straining an otherwise strong and historically significant relationship, and compelling India to balance its strategic interests with its commitment to international norms and principles.
Challenges of Abandoning Russia
All of this warrants a discussion on if India needs to rethink its alignment with Russia? Is it time to focus all energies on aligning with the USA given that Russia has been acting like a bad boy and by law of association, it hurts India. However the challenges of leaving Russia in the lurch and aligning with the USA alone comes with its own headaches, namely:
1. Defense Dependency
Despite efforts to diversify its defense procurement, India remains heavily dependent on Russia for military hardware. Approximately 60-70% of India’s defense equipment is of Russian origin. Severing ties with Russia could disrupt defense supplies and maintenance, potentially compromising India’s defense readiness in the short term.
2. Energy Security
Russia is a significant supplier of energy resources to India, particularly crude oil and natural gas. The energy partnership with Russia is vital for India’s energy security, and any disruption could lead to increased energy costs and supply vulnerabilities.
3. Diplomatic Repercussions
Abandoning Russia could have diplomatic repercussions, affecting India’s relationships with other countries that view Russia as a strategic partner. It could also limit India’s ability to act as a mediator in global conflicts, diminishing its influence on the international stage.
Strategic Imperatives: The Case for Closer U.S. Alignment
Foreign policy experts view US and India as natural allies and have been long advocating for singular ties between the two countries given that the challenges, outcomes and goals are similar for both countries:
1. Countering China’s Regional Hegemony
China’s assertive behavior in the Indo-Pacific, its border disputes with India, and its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) have heightened security concerns for New Delhi. A closer alignment with the United States, which shares similar apprehensions about China’s ambitions, could bolster India’s strategic position. The U.S. has been proactive in forming alliances and partnerships, such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) with India, Japan, and Australia, aimed at ensuring a free and open Indo-Pacific.
2. Defense and Technological Cooperation
The United States is a leading global provider of advanced defense technology and systems. Strengthening defense ties with the U.S. could enhance India’s military capabilities, providing access to cutting-edge technology and facilitating joint military exercises. This would be a significant advantage in countering China’s growing military prowess.
3. Economic and Trade Benefits
The U.S. is one of India’s largest trading partners, and a closer strategic alliance could unlock further economic opportunities. Enhanced economic ties with the U.S. could attract more investment, foster technology transfers, and create a more favorable environment for trade. This economic partnership would be crucial for India’s growth and development.
The Middle Path: Balancing Relationships
However, as with any delicate issues and given the complexities of the geopolitical landscape, a pragmatic approach for India would be to balance its relationships with both the United States and Russia. This strategy involves leveraging the benefits of closer U.S. alignment while maintaining a functional partnership with Russia.
1. Strategic Autonomy
Maintaining strategic autonomy allows India to navigate the evolving geopolitical dynamics without being overly dependent on any single power. This autonomy is crucial for India’s long-term strategic interests, enabling it to act independently based on its national priorities.
2. Broaden Engagement with Multiple Powers
Engaging with multiple powers, including the U.S., Russia, Japan, the European Union, and others, diversifies India’s strategic options. This multipolar engagement ensures that India is not vulnerable to the whims of any single country and can leverage different partnerships to its advantage.
3. Position Regional and Global Leadership
By maintaining balanced relationships, India can position itself as a regional and global leader, promoting stability and cooperation. This approach enhances India’s diplomatic leverage and allows it to play a constructive role in global governance.
Policy Recommendations for India
In order to walk the tightrope and delicately balance the needs of our global aspirations, it is important for India to align its policies and interests to focus on:
1. Strengthening the Quad:
India should continue to strengthen its partnership with the Quad, focusing on joint initiatives in defense, maritime security, and infrastructure development in the Indo-Pacific. This collaboration can serve as a counterbalance to China’s regional ambitions.
2. Diversifying Defense Procurement
Accelerating the diversification of defense procurement is essential. India should explore new defense partnerships and indigenous production capabilities to reduce dependence on any single country, including Russia.
3. Enhancing Energy Security
To mitigate the risks associated with energy dependence on Russia, India should diversify its energy sources. This includes increasing imports from other countries, investing in renewable energy, and enhancing domestic production.
4. Engaging in Diplomatic Dialogue
Maintaining open channels of communication with Russia is crucial. India should engage in diplomatic dialogue to address mutual concerns and ensure that the partnership remains functional despite geopolitical tensions.
5. Economic and Technological Collaboration
Expanding economic and technological collaboration with the United States and other advanced economies can drive India’s growth. Initiatives in digital infrastructure, innovation, and sustainable development should be prioritized.
Conclusion
India’s decision on whether to distance itself from Russia and align more closely with the United States to counter China is a complex and multifaceted one. The historical ties, strategic interests, and economic considerations all play a critical role in shaping this decision. While the benefits of closer U.S. alignment in countering China are evident, the challenges of abandoning Russia cannot be overlooked.
A balanced approach, maintaining strategic autonomy while leveraging partnerships with multiple global powers, offers the most pragmatic path forward. This strategy allows India to navigate the complexities of the geopolitical landscape, ensuring that its national interests are safeguarded and its global standing is enhanced. As India continues to rise as a global power, a nuanced and flexible foreign policy will be essential to navigate the challenges and opportunities of the 21st century.
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